愚智談 WiStupiDialogue
文化茶寮系列
Culture Jabber Tea House
2.17 辨真假 3
Truth 3
《穹頂之下》的真與假 3
11/4/2015
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愚：前輩上次談到到矯正霧霾的方法時，説柴片最後的結論用錯了經濟理論，這星期您可以解釋一下嗎？
智：當然可以，新聞學我不懂，不過經濟學我還懂一點，而且從敍述經濟
(descriptive
economics)到計量經濟(quantitative
economics)，也還算有點認識。當然，經濟學家也會莫衷一是，最常聽到的笑話是經濟學家都有兩隻手甚至三隻手，因為他們愛説 On the
one hand ...., on the other
hand....，另外便是兩個經濟學家會有三種意見。我沒有經濟學家那水平，給不了很權威的意見，只是柴片引用的經濟理論，連大學一年級基礎課程的水平
也未達到，便輕率地用自己的見解當作正解，模仿60分鐘時事那類節目，在片末做個總結，别人多少都找過經濟學家來給點意見，她則包攬一切專家意見，識者可
以一笑置之，平民百姓信以為真，便平添很多不必要的爭鬥。
愚：唔，那晚輩洗耳恭聽。
智：第一，她説到的污染問題，在經濟學中，涉及到幾個範疇，包括外部效應 (externalities)，自然壟斷(natural monopoly)，產權經濟(property right)，公地資源(common pool resources)等等問題，在國際社會中，更是涉及多個以國家為單位之不合作參與者(inoperative players)在近乎無政府狀態(anarchy)下互相博弈的博弈學(game theory)問題，現在那麽薄弱且無有效約束力的國際法和國際公約，根本管不了，全部都是市場失效(market failure)的個案，柴小妹竟用她不知從那裡學來的初階經濟學知識，言之鑿鑿地説可以用私有化及市場化將問題解決，怎能不令人失笑。
愚：什麽，前輩好像隨口便説出一大堆經濟概念，那柴片的建議真的不可行嗎？
智：要詳細解釋這一大堆概念，在大學也可能要花一個半個學期，要深入的話，每個課題都能獨立成科，你可以用我説的名詞做搜尋字串，便能慢慢自學。但
我也可簡單扼要説一下，污染物的排放，是排向業權不清的公地居多，例如大氣產權誰屬，你能説得清嗎？公海的業權便更難界定。當年美國的五湖區污染同樣是公
地悲劇，因此處理的成本不會反映在生產商的成本中，是外部效應，跟有沒有競爭無關，市場中越多參與者便越難管理。自然壟斷的成因便更易找到，石油及石化工
業是規模經濟的標準案例，須要大量的風險資金(venture
capital)及大規模的生產才能有限減低平均成本，你叫個個體户在自己後園或跑到荒野能打個洞探油和採油嗎？西方的石油公司也是幾家巨無霸壟斷了；柴
小妹説的小型供應商不過是終端分銷商，跟探鑛，採油，煉化等實質生產的初階生產(primary production)沒有太大關係，下面是美國一些有關石化油氣市場結構的網站鏈接，自己看看吧：
1. www. api.org
2. pesa.org
3. http://www.petroleumtraders.com/
銷售商只管零售批發，這樣的高端供應鏈能不能令低端生產減低成本及改善質素是大有疑問，至少從經濟學角度看見不到有關連 (correlation)，反而加大了中間人的成本，但美國幅員廣大，終端銷售靠地方性分銷商有客觀因素，中間的提煉廠商(refinery) 確是數量不小，但在最後油價的影響，最大的不是提煉費那部份。在廿一世紀前，美國還未重新擴大原油生產，加拿大是美國的石油氣主要供應國之一，但美國石油氣價 都低於加拿大；加拿大人假日自駕自由行到美國遊玩購物，總會入滿一缸油回加拿大，但他們很多不明白為什麽美國買了加拿大的油，零售賣得比加拿大還便宜，原 來一直以來，美國對石油業都有補貼。在香港，一個普通市民也能説出西方那聊聊幾個的石油巨擘，上世紀末才陸續被原產地國家收購或接管，中國公司只是老五，下面的鏈接是世界十大原油生產商(crude oil producer)的資料：
* 世界十大原油生產商: www.therichest.com
|
Rank |
Company |
Production (barrels per day) |
Country and Origin |
|
1 |
Saudi Aramco |
12 million+ bpd |
Saudi Arabia, Company set up by American and taken over by Saudi Arabia |
|
2 |
Gazprom |
9.7 million bpd |
Russian |
|
3 |
National Iranian Oil Company |
6.4 million bpd |
Iran, Company set up by British and taken over by Iran |
|
4 |
ExxonMobil |
5.3 million bpd |
US, Company set up by John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil Company |
|
5 |
PetroChina |
4.4 million bpd |
China |
|
6 |
BP |
4.1 million bpd |
British, Originated from the Anglo-Persian Oil Company |
|
7 |
Royal Dutch Shell |
3.9 million bpd |
Hollan and UK, created in 1907 by the merging of Royal Dutch Petroleum and the Shell Transport and Trading Company of Britain |
|
8 |
Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) |
3.6 million bpd |
Mexico, Company setup by American and British Company and take over by Mexican Government |
|
9 |
Chevron |
3.5 million bpd |
US, Company set up as the Pacific Coast Oil Company (PCOC), renamed as Standard Oil of California and merged with Gulf Oil. |
|
10 |
Kuwait Petrol Corporation |
3.2 million bpd |
Company created by the companies we know today as BP and Chevron and then taken over by Kuwait Government |
再看世界上原油生產國的排名，中國只是老四，便知道沒有國家級的企業和國家以政經軍事實力作後台，小企業根本無法生存。
| Country | Production (bbl/day) | Share of World % | Date of Information | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | World | 84,951,200 | 100% | 2014 est.[6] |
| 1 |  Russia | 10,590,000 | 14.05% | 2014 est. |
| 2 |  Saudi Arabia | 9,693,200 | 13.09% | 2013 est. |
| 3 |  United States | 9,020,000 | 12.23% | 2015 est.[7] |
| 4 |  China | 4,372,000 | 5.15% | 2014 est. |
| 5 |  Canada | 3,856,000 | 4.54% | 2014 est. |
| 6 |  Iraq | 3,800,000 | 4.45% | 2014 est. |
| 7 |  Iran | 3,518,000 | 4.14% | 2014 est. |
| 8 |  United Arab Emirates | 3,087,000 | 3.32% | 2013 est. |
| 9 |  Venezuela | 3,023,000 | 3.56% | 2013 est. |
| 10 |  Mexico | 2,934,000 | 3.56% | 2013 est. |
| 11 |  Kuwait | 2,682,000 | 2.96% | 2013 est. |
| 12 |  Brazil | 2,633,000 | 3.05% | 2013 est. |
| 13 |  Nigeria | 2,525,000 | 2.62% | 2013 est. |
| — |  European Union | 2,107,001 | ||
| 14 |  Norway | 1,998,000 | 2.79% | 2013 est. |
| 15 |  Algeria | 1,885,000 | 2.52% | 2013 est. |
| 16 |  Angola | 1,840,000 | 2.31% | 2013 est. |
| 17 |  Kazakhstan | 1,635,000 | 1.83% | 2013 est. |
| 18 |  Qatar | 1,631,000 | 1.44% | 2013 est. |
| 19 |  United Kingdom | 1,099,000 | 1.78% | 2011 est. |
| 20 |  Colombia | 1,011,992 | 1.19% | 2013 est. |
| 21 |  Azerbaijan | 987,000 | 1.20% | 2011 est. |
| 22 |  Indonesia | 982,900 | 1.66% | |
| 23 |  India | 897,300 | 1.04% | 2013 est. |
| 25 |  Oman | 890,500 | 0.95% | 2013 est. |
| 26 |  Argentina | 796,300 | 0.93% | 2013 est. |
| 27 |  Libya | 700,000 | 0.85% | 2013 est.[8] |
| 28 |  Egypt | 680,500 | 0.80% | 2013 est. |
| 29 |  Malaysia | 693,700 | 0.82% | 2013 est. |
| 30 |  Australia | 589,200 | 0.70% | 2013 est. |
| 31 |  Ecuador | 485,700 | 0.58% | 2013 est. |
| 32 |  Syria | 400,400 | 0.48% | 2013 est. |
| 33 |  Thailand | 380,000 | 0.45% | 2013 est. |
| 35 |  Equatorial Guinea | 346,000 | 0.41% | 2013 est. |
| 36 |  Vietnam | 300,600 | 0.36% | 2013 est. |
| 37 |  Yemen | 288,400 | 0.34% | 2013 |
| 38 |  Taiwan | 276,800 | 0.33% | 2009 |
| 39 |  Congo, Republic of the | 274,400 | 0.33% | 2009 |
| 40 |  Denmark | 262,100 | 0.31% | 2009 |
| 41 |  Gabon | 241,700 | 0.29% | 2009 |
| 42 |  Turkmenistan | 197,700 | 0.22% | 2009 |
| 43 |  South Africa | 191,000 | 0.22% | 2009 |
| 44 |  Germany | 156,800 | 0.19% | 2009 |
| 45 |  Trinidad and Tobago | 151,600 | 0.18% | 2009 |
| 46 |  Peru | 148,000 | 0.17% | 2009 |
| 47 |  Italy | 146,500 | 0.17% | 2009 |
| 48 |  Brunei | 146,000 | 0.17% | 2009 |
| 49 |  Japan | 132,700 | 0.16% | 2009 |
| 50 |  Pakistan | 120,000 | 0.16% | 2015 |
| 51 |  Romania | 117,000 | 0.14% | 2009 |
| 52 |  Chad | 115,000 | 0.13% | 2009 |
| 53 |  Sudan | 111,700 | 0.13% | 2009 |
| 54 |  Ukraine | 99,930 | 0.12% | 2009 |
| 55 |  Timor-Leste | 96,270 | 0.11% | 2009 |
| 56 |  Tunisia | 91,380 | 0.11% | 2009 |
| 57 |  Cameroon | 77,310 | 0.09% | 2009 |
| 58 |  Uzbekistan | 70,910 | 0.08% | 2013 |
| 59 |  France | 70,820 | 0.08% | 2013 |
| 60 |  New Zealand | 61,150 | 0.07% | 2013 |
| 61 |  Suriname | 59,190 | 0.07% | 2013 |
| 62 |  Ivory Coast | 58,950 | 0.07% | 2013 |
| 63 |  Netherlands | 57,190 | 0.07% | 2013 |
| 64 |  Turkey | 52,980 | 0.06% | 2013 |
| 65 |  Bahrain | 48,560 | 0.06% | 2013 |
| 66 |  Cuba | 48,340 | 0.06% | 2013 |
| 67 |  Korea, South | 48,180 | 0.06% | 2010 |
| 68 |  Bolivia | 47,050 | 0.06% | 2010 |
| 69 |  Papua New Guinea | 35,090 | 0.04% | 2009 |
| 70 |  Poland | 34,140 | 0.04% | 2009 |
| 71 |  Belarus | 31,400 | 0.04% | 2009 |
| 72 |  Spain | 27,230 | 0.03% | 2009 |
| 73 |  Croatia | 23,960 | 0.03% | 2009 |
| 74 |  Austria | 21,880 | 0.03% | 2009 |
| 75 |  Hungary | 21,430 | 0.03% | 2010 |
| 76 |  Burma | 18,880 | 0.02% | 2009 |
| 77 |  U.S. Virgin Islands | 16,870 | 0.02% | 2009 |
| 78 |  Mauritania | 16,510 | 0.02% | 2009 |
| 79 |  Congo, Democratic Republic of the | 16,360 | 0.02% | 2009 |
| 80 |  Guatemala | 13,530 | 0.02% | 2009 |
| 81 |  Philippines | 12,000 | 0.02% | 2013 est.[9] |
| 82 |  Serbia | 11,400 | 0.01% | 2010 |
| 83 |  Belgium | 11,220 | 0.01% | 2009 |
| 84 |  Czech Republic | 10,970 | 0.01% | 2009 |
| 85 |  Singapore | 10,910 | 0.01% | 2009 |
| 86 |  Chile | 10,850 | 0.01% | 2009 |
| 87 |  Finland | 8,718 | 0.01% | 2009 |
| 88 |  Estonia | 7,600 | 0.01% | 2009 |
| 89 |  Ghana | 7,081 | 0.01% | 2009 |
| 90 |  Greece | 6,779 | 0.01% | 2009 |
| 91 |  Lithuania | 6,333 | 0.01% | 2009 |
| 92 |  Bangladesh | 5,733 | 0.01% | 2009 |
| 93 |  Albania | 5,400 | 0.01% | 2009 |
| 94 |  Mongolia | 5,100 | 0.01% | 2009 |
| 95 |  Sweden | 4,833 | 0.01% | 2009 |
| 96 |  Portugal | 4,721 | 0.01% | 2009 |
| 97 |  Slovakia | 4,114 | 0.00% | 2013 |
| 98 |  Morocco | 4,053 | 0.00% | 2013 |
| 99 |  Belize | 3,990 | 0.00% | 2013 |
| 100 |  Israel | 3,806 | 0.00% | 2013 |
| 101 |  Switzerland | 3,488 | 0.00% | 2013 |
| 102 |  Bulgaria | 3,227 | 0.00% | 2013 |
| 103 |  Aruba | 2,235 | 0.00% | 2013 |
| 104 |  Puerto Rico | 1,783 | 0.00% | 2013 |
| 105 |  Uruguay | 997 | 0.00% | 2010 |
| 105 |  Georgia | 995 | 0.00% | 2013 |
| 105 |  Kyrgyzstan | 979 | 0.00% | 2013 |
| 106 |  Barbados | 765 | 0.00% | 2013 |
| 107 |  Ireland | 431 | 0.00% | 2010 |
| 108 |  Tajikistan | 221 | 0.00% | 2013 |
| 109 |  Zambia | 160 | 0.00% | 2013 |
| 110 |  Korea, North | 118 | 0.00% | 2013 |
| 111 |  Somalia | 108 | 0.00% | 2013 |
| 112 |  Paraguay | 31 | 0.00% | 2013 |
| 113 |  Sierra Leone | 29 | 0.00% | 2013 |
| 114 |  Slovenia | 5 | 0.00% | 2013 |
| 115 |  Panama | 2 | 0.00% | 2013 |
（Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production)
柴小妹所提出的是桃花園記的世界，但她的影响力大，不似我們的小民一個，以誤為正，便容易滋生大事。她要理順這個涉及那麽多經濟，政治及國際法律學 家窮畢生精力也未能解決的課題，志氣宏大但學養見識未夠，只憑一己之激情便幹一些挑動大眾情感的行為，假裝論理但實際基礎不扎實，情理法三方沒有做到合 理平衡，這是懷著好心做壞事的例子。現在的通識老師有多少個是兼備足夠的歷史，經濟，政治和國際法知識來帶引學生分析這片是疑問。
愚：那什麽辦法才能改善現時的污染情況呢？
智：按美國人六十年代後期和日本八十年代的做法，都是由政府以立法和 加強執法的方式來進行，後果是工業生產成本飈升，工業轉型，但以全球一體角度看，只是將問題輸出，猶如將垃圾掃到鄰居那裡，在發展中國家進程太急，只會扼 殺發展，情理法的平衡點，永遠是最難掌握的，因為一個小兒的先天性遺傳病而影響萬千民眾的福祉，同樣情何以堪！
愚：依前輩所見，柴片是情多於理少，她的理論基礎前輩可以再詳細舉例解釋嗎？
智：那你先回去將上面提到的經濟，政治和國際法課題做點入門閱讀，我們下次續談。
愚：好的，謝謝前輩，再見。
